EUR/USD Forecast Video for 06.03.23
Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis
The Euro has initially rallied during the course of the week, as we continue to dance around the 1.06 level. This is an area that I think will continue to be important, so you need to pay close attention to it. The market of course is trying to figure out what to do with the 50-Week EMA, and the fact that we pulled back to the 50% Fibonacci level on that massive bounce, we have to wonder whether or not the downtrend will continue? There is an argument to be made that the bounce was absolutely overdone, and therefore momentum is a bit of a funny thing here.
If we break down below the 1.05 level, then I think that the Euro has a real chance of going down to the parity level over the long term, but I think that the 1.03 level would probably be an area that could cause a little bit of support. Regardless, a lot of this will come down to the US dollar and what it’s doing, as the Euro is considered to be the “anti-dollar.”
If we do rally at this point, I think that the 1.10 level above is a major resistance barrier, so I would still be looking for opportunities to short this market on signs of exhaustion. Whether or not we are ready to break down yet is a completely different question, but there are a lot of factors out there that could have people running for safety, which in general tends to lead traders back to the Greenbank and perhaps even the safety of bonds in the United States.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire