Job Cuts and Stock Prices: Tech Layoffs Paint a Mixed Picture

Stocks did typically get a positive boost in the trading session immediately after layoff announcements—with an average gain of just over 5% from a sample of 12 prominent tech companies that said they plan to cut at least 500 jobs in recent months. But the cuts haven’t guaranteed lasting gains.

The largest cuts by number of workers weren’t necessarily the deepest.

Amazon

(ticker: AMZN) said it would reduce its workforce by more than 18,000 employees, around 6% of its corporate employees. Crypto exchange

Coinbase

(COIN) announced the proportionately deepest reduction in the sample, planning to cut 20% of its workforce, or 950 jobs.

Some companies found bigger layoffs got a more positive reaction from shareholders. Coinbase was rewarded with a gain of nearly 13% immediately after its layoff announcement in early January. Online furniture retailer

Wayfair

(W) soared more than 20% on the news it was cutting a 10th of its workforce later the same month.

On the other hand, deeper cuts didn’t guarantee a bigger rise.

Twilio

said earlier this month it would cut 17% of its workforce but shares rose just 2% on the day. That could be a sign that a certain amount of fatigue with layoffs mutes the reaction. Twilio’s announcement was its second round of major layoffs in a matter of months.

Some layoffs fail to spark any share rise at all.

Microsoft

(MSFT) shareholders met the company’s announcement of a 5% cut to its workforce in January with seeming indifference, as the stock ended down on the day. That reflected the feeling that the company was making a “tactical cost cut,” in the words of D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, rather than looking to transform its business.

A more important question for investors might be whether layoffs lead to lasting gains.

Facebook-owner

Meta Platforms

(META) is the poster child for the case that the market will continue rewarding job cuts. Over the period since Mark Zuckerberg’s announcement of 11,000 layoffs, or 13% of its workforce, in November last year, Meta stock has risen by close to 80%. Zuckerberg’s assertion that 2023 will be a “year of efficiency” at the social-media company and hints at further layoffs have been greeted positively by the marker.

However, Wayfair shows how quickly the initial positivity can dissipate. The stock gave up almost all of its post-layoff gains after reporting a wider fourth-quarter loss than analysts had expected on Thursday. That suggests layoffs only go so far toward convincing shareholders that loss-making companies are changing their ways.

That’s particularly true with tech stocks still vulnerable to expectations over inflation and interest-rate expectations. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is up just over 9% this year so far but has given up a large part of its initial January rally, with investors concerned that continued high inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates.

Companies that have implemented layoffs could find themselves under pressure to do more. Google-parent

Alphabet

(GOOG) said in late January it would cut 12,000 jobs, or around 6% of its total workforce. leading to an initial stock rise. The stock is down since then, partly driven by Google’s new chatbot underwhelming investors. Activist investor Chris Hohn has urged Alphabet to widen its job cuts to at least 20% of the company.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com