Asian FX, stocks jolted as Fed rate bets rise after CPI shock
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Currencies and shares in Asia’s emerging
markets were battered on Wednesday as the dollar advanced in the
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wake of a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report, which
fueled market bets on more aggressive Federal Reserve rate
hikes.
Shares in Taipei fell as much as 2.5% in their
biggest single-day drop in more than two weeks, while equities
in Manila, Seoul, Singapore, and Shanghai
all fell more than 1%.
“A sharp repricing of rates expectations will lead to a
widening of yield differentials and that puts more pressure on
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AXJ FX,” said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC
Bank.
Overnight data showed the U.S. headline Consumer Price Index
rose 0.1% on a monthly basis compared to expectations for a 0.1%
decline. Core inflation, stripping out volatile food and energy
prices, doubled to 0.6%.
“Upside surprise in U.S. CPI (on several dimensions) dashed
inflated hopes that entrenching signs of peaking inflation
will allow the Fed to dial back on aggressive tightening,” said
Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank
in Singapore.
Money markets currently price in 37% odds for a full
percentage-point hike on Sept. 21, versus a 63% probability of
another 75 basis-point move.
“The resultant hawkish jolt to markets was brutal, with a
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blood bath in equities,” Varathan said.
Wall Street saw its steepest fall in two years, the
safe-haven dollar posted its biggest jump since early 2020, and
two-year Treasury yields, which rise with traders’
expectations of higher Fed fund rates, jumped to the highest
level in 15 years.
In Asia, the South Korean won declined 1.6% to
its lowest level since March 2009. Indonesia’s rupiah
weakened to a six-week low, while the Malaysian ringgit
slid 0.4% to its lowest since January 1998.
“The risk of tighter financial conditions and growth worries
further undermine trade-dependent and high-beta FX like the
Korean won, Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht,” said OCBC
Bank’s Wong.
Persistent dollar strength has already burdened Asian
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currencies heavily this year, with the won, Philippine peso
and Taiwanese dollar all down more than 10%. The Chinese
yuan has also slumped, driven lower in part by the
country’s COVID-19 outbreaks.
“Given excessive moves in FX markets, I won’t rule out
central banks engaging in further jawboning,” Wong said.
South Korean and Japanese officials have threatened currency
market intervention, with a weak growth outlook adding to
downward pressure on the won and low rates weighing on the yen.
The Bank of Japan conducted a rate check in apparent
preparation for currency intervention, the Nikkei website
reported on Wednesday, citing unidentified sources.
The yen reversed losses to trade up nearly 0.6% on
Wednesday.
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HIGHLIGHTS
** BOJ checks FX rates in apparent preparation for currency
intervention -Nikkei
** Taiwanese stocks post biggest single-day loss since Aug
29
** Baring Private Equity raises $11.2 bln in one of Asia’s
largest buyout funds
** Thailand approves more energy support, wage hikes
Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0431 GMT
COUNTRY FX RIC FX FX YTD INDEX STOCK STOCKS
DAILY % S YTD %
% DAILY
%
Japan +0.24 -20.19 -2.45 -3.05
China +0.07 -8.75 -1.02 -11.24
India -0.50 -6.56 -0.74 3.35
Indonesia -0.44 -4.46 -0.72 10.40
Malaysia -0.40 -7.96 -0.83 -5.87
Philippines -0.11 -10.83 -1.38 -7.20
S.Korea -1.35 -14.62 -1.44 -18.92
Singapore +0.10 -4.00 -1.13 4.14
Taiwan -0.64 -10.93 -1.58 -19.54
Thailand -0.19 -8.96 -0.78 -0.57
(Reporting by Harish Sridharan in Bengaluru; Editing by Edmund
Klamann)
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