China drought highlights economic damage wrought by global warming

Er Hu works in an office tower in Chongqing most days. But when forest fires erupted in the south-western Chinese city as it faced the country’s worst drought for decades, the 31-year-old visa consultant grabbed his motorbike and rode to the outskirts to help transport supplies to fight the blazes.

“There were 1,000-2,000 firefighters on the mountains but lots of motorcycle volunteers,” he said, adding that cars struggled to navigate the muddy paths.

Sichuan province started to restore power for industrial users from Sunday, but the impact on the broader economy from the heatwave, which caused temperatures in Chongqing to rise 7C higher than the average level over the past decade, has been severe. Widespread power shortages in the south-west paralysed industry in a crisis that scientists said was probably caused by climate change.

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The drought caused rivers that feed hydroelectric plants to dry up. This included the Yangtze, China’s largest and most important waterway for trade, which dropped to its lowest level on record. The river was so low near Chongqing that 600-year-old Buddhist statues which had been underwater for centuries were exposed.

“The combination of duration, area and intensity of this heatwave in eastern China has no precedent in world climatic history,” said climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera. “The 2013 heatwave was considered the most intense before 2022, but this one has doubled its duration, it’s much more intense and has encompassed a larger area.”

One possible reason for the extreme weather is that climate change has caused the jet stream, the band of fast-moving air that controls weather in the mid-latitudes, to “wobble”, said Johnny Chan, emeritus professor of atmospheric science at the City University of Hong Kong.

With a less stable “jet stream, you can get a blocking situation [where] there will be persistent warm air coming south to the north”, he said, adding that the tropical high-pressure system had also extended over more of central China than in the past. “It usually stays on the coast, but now it extends very far inland. Lakes are drying up in Central China.”

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Sichuan, Chongqing and Hebei province, an area with a combined population of more than 174mn, export power to manufacturing hubs on China’s east coast. But this year, Sichuan’s hydropower has operated at about 20 per cent of average capacity, according to David Fishman, an energy market analyst at the Lantau Group.

“As long as the river flow rates remain depressed, Sichuan hydropower generation loses the capacity to be treated as baseload,” Fishman said, referring to the minimum level of demand.

The heat has caused a surge in demand for power and air conditioning, with Sichuan setting records for peak power load. Authorities were forced to order manufacturing companies to pause production for more than two weeks.

“The implication for business is pretty broad . . . In Sichuan, it has created a perfect storm of conditions. Any kind of manufacturing is having issues,” said Even Pay, an analyst at consultancy Trivium China.

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Manufacturers such as Toyota and Foxconn halted production, while the power shortages caused supply chain problems for the Shanghai-based operations of Tesla and state-owned carmaker SAIC Motor. Changan Automobile, another state-owned carmaker, said it expected to produce 100,000 fewer vehicles in August after power cuts forced the closure of its Sichuan factory.

Sichuan is also a significant source of lithium and polysilicon, materials that are vital for the production of electric vehicles and solar panels — sectors Beijing hopes will help revive growth in its slowing economy.

Power rationing will lead to reduced production of lithium, which is used to produce batteries, with lithium carbonate output estimated to fall by 1,250 tonnes and lithium hydroxide by 3,050 tonnes in August, according to the Shanghai Metals Market.

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The production shortages have sapped economic output, but the strains have been particularly acute for those trying to live in the extreme conditions.

Authorities instructed office managers to increase air conditioner temperatures to save electricity, so workers put ice bricks in front of fans to stay cool. Residents rode the subway in darkened carriages as cities dimmed lighting. And the strict adherence to Beijing’s zero-Covid policy meant authorities in Chongqing conducted citywide PCR tests on August 24 while fires raged behind them.

“In the face of natural disasters, we are so helpless,” said Hu.

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