Nato is in ammunition race against Russia in Ukraine, says Stoltenberg

Nato member states are in a “race of logistics” with Russia in a bid to get crucial ammunition supplies to the Ukrainian army as Moscow starts its expected offensive in the east of the country, the alliance’s chief has warned.

Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia had already commenced a long-anticipated offensive in eastern Ukraine ahead of the first anniversary of President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion on February 24, prompting the Ukrainian army to consume ammunition at an unprecedented rate. The Nato secretary-general’s stark remarks came on the eve of a meeting of allied defence ministers seeking to co-ordinate weapons supplies for Ukraine.

“The reality is that we have seen the start [of the Russian offensive] already . . . sending in thousands and thousands more troops,” Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday. “It is clear that we are in the race of logistics. Key capabilities like ammunition . . . must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield.

“A war of attrition becomes a battle of logistics,” he said. “Yes, we have a challenge. Yes we have a problem . . . but we have a strategy to tackle that.”

Ukraine’s ammunition shortages were “acute”, a senior western intelligence official told the Financial Times, adding that the speed of western supplies would be critical to the outcome of Russia’s attempt to regain the initiative in the war.

Kyiv’s forces are estimated to be firing more than 5,000 artillery rounds every day — equal to a smaller European country’s orders in an entire year in peacetime.

Russia is estimated to be firing four times that amount each day as it seeks to gain territory in the east of the country and deploying tens of thousands of newly trained conscripts in the war.

Russian troops are inching forward towards capturing the town of Bakhmut in the Donbas region in fierce fighting that has been compared to the conditions of the first world war. Moscow is simultaneously targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure nationwide with long-range missile attacks.

“The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles. The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain,” Stoltenberg said.

Ammunition is expected to be the most critical subject of discussion at the Nato defence ministers’ meeting, which will also feature a debate on the potential of sending fighter jets.

Stoltenberg said that for large-calibre ammunition, waiting times for factory delivery had increased to 28 months from 12 months.

“We are not just sitting there idle and doing nothing . . . The industry has the capability to increase production in the short term,” he added. “You can have more shifts, you can work weekends.

“We need to ramp up production and invest in our production capacity,” he said.

Nato recently concluded an emergency inventory check of its allied armies’ ammunition stockpiles and future orders in response to the extraordinary depletion of reserves caused by supporting Ukraine in the war.

That would allow the alliance to better understand where supplies were most strained and where the most immediate focus was needed, Stoltenberg said.

Ukraine’s Western allies “need to move things as fast as possible into their hands as they defend their territory”, said Julianne Smith, US ambassador to Nato, adding that she expected “new and additional pledges” to be made this week.

Separately on Monday, Poland started training Ukrainian troops on German Leopard 2 main battle tanks. The month-long training in the southern Polish village of Świętoszów, is being carried out by Polish, Canadian and Norwegian military instructors.

“There are 105 soldiers trained here,” said the commander of the training group, senior staff ensign Krzysztof Sieradzki, adding that more Ukrainian soldiers were expected to come through.

Polish defence minister Mariusz Błaszczak said the international coalition on Leopards announced last month was gradually coming together, with Canada having already delivered tanks to Poland, which would be shipped to Ukraine once the soldiers’ training was complete. “We are waiting for tanks from Norway, the instructors are already here. We are in advanced talks with the Spanish side,” said Błaszczak.