NFL Week 13 Bettors Guide: Don’t look for Giants to get back on track against Commanders

1 p.m., Commanders by 1 ½, 40 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Just a few weeks ago, did anyone think the Commanders would be favored on the road against the then-soaring Giants? But a lot has happened since. Carson Wentz’ injury has been the best thing to happen to the Commanders as Taylor Heinicke’s inspiring play has lifted the team back into the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, three losses in four games have the Giants playing to their preseason expectations. Most disturbing is the slowing down of their running game, the key to their hot start. That’s not likely to change against Washington’s defense. Not convinced? Take the under is what will be an absolute slog of a game.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Commanders and the under.

1 p.m., Vikings by 3, 45 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Coin-flipping here. The Jets need their impressive defense to bring its A-Game. Sauce Gardner has to outplay Justin Jefferson and Quinnen Williams has to take advantage of the Vikings’ soft underbelly. But the Vikings’ offense — and in particular Kirk Cousins — is usually a different animal at home. Mike White can’t be expected to play like Dan Marino for a second straight week. Love the over in what will be a little bit of a back-and-forth track meet.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the over.

1 p.m., Packers by 4, 42 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Aaron Rodgers plans to drag his battered body onto Soldier Field to reclaim ownership of the Bears. We still don’t know about Justin Fields’ status but as was the case going into last week’s game against the Jets, who wants him scrambling around with a separated shoulder? On top of Fields’ situation, Chicago just placed WR Darnell Mooney and S Eddie Jackson on IR. Both teams run the ball fairly well and have issues against the run. The Bears are just worse at it.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under.

1 p.m., Browns by 7, 47

HANK’S HONEYS: Rust-encrusted Deshaun Watson comes off his lengthy suspension on the road against his former team. That might provide some motivation for the dispirited Texans but not enough to make up for the disparity on the field. The Browns don’t need Watson to have a big day. He merely has to hand it off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the two-headed monster of the league’s fifth-best rushing offense against the league’s worst run defense. Meanwhile, with Houston’s poor QB play, rookie Dameon Pierce has been running into stacked boxes every week. That won’t change here. Watson might add a rushing TD of his own to the rout.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the under.

1 p.m., Ravens by 8 ½, 38 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: The Ravens were stunned in their visit to Jacksonville last week but they have bounced back strong after their three previous losses. It’s a big line but given Denver’s inept offense, it will probably come down to whether the Ravens can score 20-24 points. That’s very doable. The Broncos’ defense is getting worn down with so much time on the field. The injuries are mounting up front and this is a run-heavy Baltimore team that can pound you inside and beat you outside with Lamar Jackson’s legs. This is a second straight east coast trip for the Broncos, who could really use a rest. With so much on the line, the Ravens won’t allow them one.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the over.

1 p.m., Eagles by 5 ½, 44 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: The Eagles’ Achilles heel is against the run, a weakness the Packers just exploited. The Titans, of course, have the NFL’s biggest run defense exploiter in Derrick Henry. They also have an above-average defense that can at least slow down this Philly machine. It’s the same formula that underrated coach Mike Vrabel used to pull off an upset in Kansas City and to a certain extent, it’s what the Commanders did in their upset of the Eagles. Make the game ugly. Maybe it won’t lead to another W against the 10-1 Eagles but it can keep things close. Titans are also 5-1 ATS on road.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the under.

4:05 p.m., Seahawks by 7 ½, 41 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: The Seahawks have lost two in a row with their defense regressing. The good news is they face the Rams’ mess of an offense this week. The defending champs have pretty much packed it in and with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp already gone, they have now shut down Aaron Donald for the year. That will leave plenty of chances for Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker to make a few chunk plays. If the Seahawks don’t rebound this week, they’re not rebounding at all.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the under.

4:25 p.m., Niners by 3 ½, 46

HANK’S HONEYS: The 49ers defense has been dominant but take a look at that schedule. They’ve played only one offense this prolific and had 44 points laid on them at home by Patrick Mahomes and Co. in late October. True, you can say the same thing about Miami facing this tough a defense but few teams can spread the Niners out with speed the way the Fish can. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is very familiar with a 49er offensive that can be hard to figure out. Christian McCaffrey has been slowed down by a knee injury and if the points start piling up, Jimmy G isn’t likely to match throws with Tua.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the over.

4:25 p.m., Chargers by 1 ½, 50 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: The Raiders have shown signs of life lately with an offense that is conveniently built to maul the Chargers. Josh Jacobs will be running all over a defense that is allowing a league-high 5.4 yards per carry. And when Derek Carr wants to take a shot downfield, Davante Adams, who had 10 catches for 141 yards and a TD at L.A. on opening day, will no longer be covered by the injured J.C. Jackson. Under pressure most of the day Carr was awful in that opening week, tossing three INTs. But injuries have taken the sting out of the Chargers’ pass rush since.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the over.

8:20 p.m., Cowboys by 10 ½, 43 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: The mismatch is up front where the Cowboys will be up against a group of pass protectors that has yielded a league-high 43 sacks. If Matt Ryan is running for his life all day, this will be an easy cover. The Cowboys have been averaging 33 ppg since Dak Prescott’s return and should be able to pull the Jonathan Taylor-led Colts into playing the game on their terms. The schedule maker didn’t do the Colts any favors. They’re on the road with a short week against a team that will have been resting for 10 days. Barring the back door …

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.

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4:25 p.m., Chiefs by 2 ½, 52 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Both teams are on a roll and heading to a possible playoff rematch although the Bengals are doing it a bit more under the radar. Nevertheless, that was a huge character win for Cincy in Nashville last week when the conditions forced the game to be played on the Titans’ terms. Both Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes figure to light things up so it could be one of those whoever-has-the-ball last shootouts. But since we have to pick a side, we’ll go with a Cincy team that gets both Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon back this week.

CAN’T HELP YOURSELF? Bengals and the over.

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1 p.m., Steelers by 1 ½, 43

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.

1 p.m., Jaguars by 1 ½, 52

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.

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Monday, 8:15 p.m., Bucs by 3 ½, 40

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the under.

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WEEK’S BEST BET: Raiders. Josh Jacobs has a day.

LAST WEEK: 9-6-1 ATS, 8-8 OVER/UNDER

OVERALL: 81-95-4 ATS, 94-84-2 OVER/UNDER

BEST BETS: 7-5