Tropical Storm Ian

Tropical Storm Ian is expected to “rapidly strengthen” this weekend and could hit Florida early next week as a major hurricane, according to forecasters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Storm Ian was moving across the central Caribbean Sea, and expected to pass southwest of Jamaica by Sunday evening. By early Sunday, it was located 345 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman, moving west-northwest at 12 mph. It had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

“Ian is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight and reach major hurricane strength by late Monday or Monday night before it reaches western Cuba.,” the NHC said. 

Ian was forecast to pass west of the Cayman Islands early Monday, and then near western Cuba Monday night, the NHC said. It could reach Florida by Tuesday, bringing the possibility of flash flooding to the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, the agency added.

“Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida,” the NHC wrote in its Sunday morning advisory. 

John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist with National Hurricane Center in Miami, said it is currently unclear exactly where Ian will hit hardest in Florida. He said residents should begin preparing for the storm, including gathering supplies for potential power outages.

“Too soon to say if it’s going to be a southeast Florida problem or a central Florida problem or just the entire state,” he said. “So at this point really the right message for those living in Florida is that you have to watch forecasts and get ready and prepare yourself for potential impact from this tropical system.”

In Pinellas Park, near Tampa, people were waiting in line at a Home Depot when it opened at 6 a.m., the Tampa Bay Times reported. Manager Wendy Macrini said the store had sold 600 cases of water by the early afternoon and ran out of generators.

People also were buying up plywood to put over their windows: “Better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it,” Matt Beaver, of Pinellas Park, told the Times.

On Friday, DeSantis signed an executive order issuing a state of emergency for 24 Florida counties that could be in the storm’s path. On Saturday, the state of emergency was expanded to cover the entire state. The order also places the Florida National Guard on standby. On Saturday night, the White House announced that President Biden had approved a federal emergency declaration for the state, which authorizes the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to coordinate disaster relief efforts and provide assistance to protect lives and property. 

The president postponed a scheduled Sept. 27 trip to Florida due to the storm.

The storm poses risk of “dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, strong winds, hazardous seas, and isolated tornadic activity for Florida’s Peninsula and portions of the Florida Big Bend, North Florida, and Northeast Florida,” DeSantis said in his executive order Saturday.

He encouraged all Floridians “to make their preparations.”

Meanwhile, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands could receive anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain, the NHC forecasted. Cuba could see 4 to 8 inches, while southern Florida and the Florida could receive 2 to 4 inches.

High terrain areas in Jamaica and Cuba are at risk of flash flooding and mudslides, the NHC said. Cuba could see storm surges of 9 to 14 feet above normal when Ian hits Monday night and early Tuesday morning.