Biden claims economic growth is up and inflation is down

As President Joe Biden launched a final four-state campaign sprint on Thursday to boost struggling Democrats ahead of the midterms, he fired back at a key GOP criticism that the economy has lagged under his watch.

‘Here’s the deal: economic growth is up, price inflation is down, real income’s up, gas prices are down,’ said Biden at a rally near San Diego in support of Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, who is in a tight race to hang on to his seat.

By certain narrow measures, Biden’s claims could be construed as true — for instance, gas prices and inflation have retreated somewhat from the historic highs they hit over the summer.

But both are well above the levels seen in January 2021, when he first took office, and for voters struggling with soaring prices, the claims may ring hollow. 

The consumer price index rose 8.2 percent in September from a year ago, up from 1.4 percent at the start of Biden’s term. The average price for a gallon of gas is around $3.75 nationwide, up from about $2.30 at his inauguration.

As Biden launched a final campaign sprint on Thursday to boost Democrats ahead of the midterms, he fired back at a key GOP criticism that the economy has lagged under his watch

Inflation has retreated somewhat from the historic highs seen over the summer, but remains near 40-year highs and well elevated from when Biden took office

In the third quarter, which just ended in September, real wages did rise 0.8 percent, the first quarterly increase after two straight years of decline or stagnation.

And the real gross domestic product, the measure of all economic output in the country, returned to growth last quarter after half a year of contraction, rising 2.6 percent on an annualized basis in a preliminary estimate.

It followed two straight quarters of shrinking GDP, which is one informal definition of a recession, though Biden denied a recession has begun. Most economists agreed, but many believe a true recession is inevitable in the next year. 

Ultimately, voters will decide if they feel more economically secure today than they did at the start of Biden’s term, a period that was turbulent with unemployment still painfully high at 6.4 percent.

Unemployment has come far down, remaining near six-decade lows at 3.5 percent, and Biden has frequently touted the strong job market as evidence of his successful economic stewardship.

But economic fears, particularly around inflation, emerged as a key voter concern in the midterms, and Republicans have hammered on the issue as they seek to regain majorities in the House and Senate.

‘Joe Biden is completely detached from reality,’ Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said last month. ‘Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, they can’t afford rising gas and grocery prices, and real wages are down.’ 

Real gross domestic product, the measure of all economic output in the country, returned to growth last quarter after half a year of contraction, rising 2.6% in the advance estimate

The average price for a gallon of gas is around $3.75 nationwide, up from about $2.30 at Biden’s inauguration, but down from the record high of $5 reached in June

Biden’s rally in California was his second of the day, following an earlier event in New Mexico, and marked the start of a four-state, three-day campaign sprint, with stops also planned in Illinois and Pennsylvania.

The tour began in Albuquerque, where he spoke on his cancellation of billions of dollars in student debt and criticized record oil company profits as he tried to deflect criticism over gas prices. 

Biden urged New Mexico voters to defeat ‘reckless and irresponsible’ Republicans and reelect Democratic New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.

New Mexico is normally safe Democratic territory, but Lujan Grisham is facing a determined challenge from her Republican opponent, former television meteorologist Mark Ronchetti.

‘Your generation is not going to be ignored, you will not be shunned, you will not be silenced,’ Biden told students at Central New Mexico Community College, where he also said people should not be imprisoned for marijuana possession and promised another attempt to ban assault weapons. 

Biden’s tour began in Albuquerque, where he spoke on his cancellation of billions of dollars in student debt and criticized record oil company profits

Biden urged New Mexico voters to defeat ‘reckless and irresponsible’ Republicans and reelect Democratic New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (with him above)

Biden repeated many of the same points at his second rally at MiraCosta College in Oceanside, California, where Rep. Levin is fighting to hold onto a seat historically held by Republicans.

Levin faces Republican businessman Brian Maryott, with the Cook Political Report now calling the race a ‘tossup’.

‘Democracy is on the ballot,’ Biden told the California crowd. ‘The truth of the matter is that … this election is going to determine the direction of the country for at least a decade or more.’

Opinion polls show Republicans could regain control of the House of Representatives, and perhaps the Senate.

The decision to deploy Biden only to areas where he won handily in 2020 was made in part because of concern about voter energy in races that Democrats view as must-win. 

Party officials are also concerned about some candidates who have seen their races tighten in the final days of the campaign. 

President Joe Biden stands on stage with Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., and his wife Chrissy, after Biden spoke at a campaign rally Thursday

Projections from Real Clear Politics show the Republicans are projected to win the House and the Senate next Tuesday 

Biden’s itinerary in the campaign’s final days illustrates the limited political clout of a president who has been held at arm’s length by some Democrats facing tough races this cycle. 

It also suggests that the president, whose approval ratings remain underwater, has concluded that he can be most effective using the waning days before polls close to shore up support for Democratic candidates in areas that he easily won in 2020.

‘Democrats are clearly on the defensive and that´s bearing out as the campaign comes to a close,’ said Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. 

‘Their chances for gains don’t look realistic, so now you look to what you can preserve.’

A president’s party typically faces significant losses during midterm elections. Since 1934, only Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George W. Bush in 2002 saw their parties gain seats in the midterms.

Some recent presidents saw big losses in their first midterm races. Republicans under Donald Trump lost 40 House seats but gained two Senate seats in 2018; Democrats under Barack Obama lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats in 2010, and Democrats under Clinton lost 52 House seats and eight Senate seats in 1994.