2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, odds, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that nailed 8 majors

Jon Rahm enters the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational ranked first in the FedEx Cup standings after securing three victories and six consecutive top-10 finishes this season. He’s coming off an impressive win at the Genesis Invitational, which catapulted the Spaniard to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Rahm will certainly be among the top 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational contenders when play gets underway from Bay Hill Club & Lodge on Thursday, March 2.

Rahm, a 10-time PGA Tour champion, is listed as the 7-1 favorite in the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds. Rory McIlroy is next in line at 19-2, with defending champion Scottie Scheffler at 11-1. Before locking in any 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,300 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express and the Genesis Invitational. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023: Morikawa, a two-time major champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Morikawa has finished T-6 or better in three of his last four starts on the PGA Tour and he secured a T-9 finish in his last start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

However, Morikawa has struggled mightily with his putter this season, ranking 94th in strokes gained: putting (.063), 110th in putts per round (29.08) and 159th in total putting (287.6). He also ranks 213th on the PGA Tour in approaches from inside 100 yards, which doesn’t bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard this week. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field.

Another surprise: Jason Day, a 31-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. 

Day has seen a resurgence in recent weeks, finishing T-9 or better in each of his last three starts on the PGA Tour. Day is a proven winner with 12 victories on tour, including the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2016. The 35-year-old also enters this week’s event ranked inside the top-25 in scoring average (68.56), birdie average (4.42), strokes gained: approach to green (.677) and one-putt percentage (42.90%), making him a strong value pick at Bay Hill. See who else to pick here. 

How to make 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 24-1 or longer who will make surprising runs, and his best bets to win include a massive longshot higher than 80-1. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.

So who will win the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, field

See the full Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Jon Rahm +700
Rory McIlroy +950
Scottie Scheffler +1100
Max Homa +1900
Collin Morikawa +2100
Justin Thomas +2300
Xander Schauffele +2400
Will Zalatoris +2400
Tony Finau +2800
Patrick Cantlay +2800
Jason Day +3100
Viktor Hovland +3100
Tyrrell Hatton +3600
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3600
Sungjae Im +4100
Jordan Spieth +4100
Cameron Young +4600
Sam Burns +4800
Tom Kim +5000
Sahith Theegala +5500
Hideki Matsuyama +5500
Keith Mitchell +5500
Chris Kirk +6500
Shane Lowry +6500
Corey Conners +7000
Tommy Fleetwood +7000
Keegan Bradley +7500
Adam Scott +8500
Billy Horschel +8500
Rickie Fowler +8500
Justin Rose +9000
Adam Hadwin +9000
Seamus Power +9000
Gary Woodland +9000
Min Woo Lee +11000
Luke List +11000
Taylor Montgomery +11000
Tom Hoge +12000
Wyndham Clark +12000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12000
Aaron Wise +12000
Alex Noren +12000
Ryan Fox +13000
Si Woo Kim +13000
Lucas Herbert +14000
Nick Taylor +14000
Adrian Meronk +15000
Thomas Detry +16000
Russell Henley +16000
Brian Harman +17000
Beau Hossler +17000
Sepp Straka +18000
K.H. Lee +19000
J.J. Spaun +19000
Harris English +19000
Byeong Hun An +20000
Justin Suh +21000
Patrick Rodgers +21000
Taylor Pendrith +21000
Joel Dahmen +21000
Sam Ryder +21000
Taylor Moore +22000
Emiliano Grillo +22000
Kurt Kitayama +22000
Joseph Bramlett +23000
Danny Willett +23000
Ben Griffin +24000
Garrick Higgo +24000
Francesco Molinari +25000