2023 NFL free agency: Every team’s QB situation ahead of offseason, ranked 1-32 in tiers

Quarterbacks make the world go ’round in the NFL. Championships have been won without prototypical franchise signal-callers, to be sure. A well-rounded roster can be just as lethal. More often than not, however, the cleanest path to contending is employing one of the league’s elite under center. That’s easier said than done, but it doesn’t make it any less true.

So where, exactly, does each team stand at this moment? We’re glad you asked. Below, we’ve ranked each and every club’s quarterback situation, separating them into tiers, ahead of the 2023 offseason. Another wave of big-name QB movement awaits, so let’s take stock of which organizations will be standing pat — or spending big — moving forward:

Locked and loaded

These teams have no reason to look elsewhere, boasting proven MVP-caliber talent under center. If they’re not already happily paying lucrative money for their franchise signal-callers, they will be soon.

1. Chiefs

Kansas City signaled to the rest of the NFL that it solved the search for an ever-elusive transcendent talent when it signed Patrick Mahomes to a 10-year mega-contract in 2020. Since then, No. 15 has only won another two AFC titles, a second NFL MVP award, and a second Super Bowl … all before the age of 28. Mahomes sets the standard for the position with his acrobatic freestyling, underrated toughness and effortless crunch-time reliability. After just five years as a starter, he’s already a Hall of Fame candidate.

2. Bengals

Saddled with inconsistent protection, Joe Burrow has still emerged as this generation’s unfazed pocket passer, instilling a justified confidence within the entire Cincinnati program. He is not a dual threat like several of his elite peers, but he’s a bona fide winner — not only thanks to back-to-back AFC Championship appearances in his first three seasons, but because he does all the little things well as a distributor, delivering some of the NFL’s prettiest — and timeliest — precision throws.

3. Eagles

After his historic Super Bowl performance against Mahomes, Jalen Hurts may well deserve No. 2 here, but his play style, as a frequent and rugged ball-carrier, leaves him a bit more vulnerable to injury. Even so, few QBs have enjoyed such a gradual and meteoric rise as a passer; he went from spotty to spot-on between Years 2 and 3, and now looks like one of the best all-around talents at the position. His unshakeable composure and work ethic is just the cherry on top.

4. Bills

Physically speaking, Josh Allen is the NFL’s closest thing to Mahomes in terms of raw talent. He tends to lean a bit too much on said gifts, putting the ball — and his body — on the line by playing superhero. But most teams would still pay an ungodly price for the chance at deploying his imposing blend of size, scrambling ability and deep-ball arm strength.

5. Chargers

Of all the elite QBs, Justin Herbert is by far the quietest, not primarily in terms of soft-spoken leadership but rather on-field results; in three years, he’s compiled a 25-25 record, including playoffs, and played it relatively safe as a passer. But that’s more so an indictment of his setup. His early-career numbers are still gaudy, and he’s built like a laser-armed pocket prototype.

6. Jaguars

Lost in all the moving parts of a forgettable rookie season, Trevor Lawrence was a different animal under competent, confident coaching from Doug Pederson in 2022. Ball control has flared up as an occasional issue, but it’s apparent, especially after his historically resilient playoff debut, that he’s got the calmness and Herbert-esque arm zip to restore hope in Jacksonville.

Cautiously comfortable

These teams employ quality QBs, some of whom actually have MVP potential, but for various reasons — pending free agency, inflated market value, etc. — have some level of reason to be skeptical long term. This tier constitutes most of the NFL.

7. Ravens

No QB, besides maybe Mahomes, is more capable than Lamar Jackson when it comes to changing a game in a single play; the Ravens star is absolutely electrifying on the ground, and his flick-of-the-wrist throwing power teases additional MVP campaigns. But Baltimore has repeatedly failed to meet Jackson’s demands for a long-term contract, and now with the QB set to hit free agency, even a franchise tag may not precipitate a sustainable partnership. The fact he’s missed at least five games due to injury in back-to-back seasons, and remains unproven as a big-game passer, makes the dynamic even more mercurial.

8. Cowboys

Is Dak Prescott a championship-caliber QB? The Cowboys are about to double down on that belief, but they’re probably the team closest to straddling the line between owning a “great” starter and an overpaid one. Prescott has traditionally mastered all the fundamentals, serving as Steady Eddie for one of the NFL’s most annually (over-)hyped contenders, but he’s been far more mediocre under the brightest lights, overseeing a 2-4 record and so-so 92.3 QB rating in the postseason.

9. Bears

With more protection and better weapons, Justin Fields should take a leap as a passer, but the former first-rounder proved in his 2022 breakout that he’s got MVP stuff as a runner, offering Lamar Jackson-level burst. And if somehow Chicago falls in love with a top prospect this year, it’s well positioned to pivot, owning the No. 1 pick in the draft plus whatever it’d get in a hypothetical trade of Fields.

10. Packers

Like Tom Brady, who’s since retired, Aaron Rodgers‘ days of effortless MVP wizardry are probably past. But presuming Green Bay improves a makeshift, injury-riddled supporting cast, his wealth of experience as a tight-window passer can’t be ignored. And if he does move on, via retirement or trade, Jordan Love at least possesses the kind of arm power you can’t teach.

11. Vikings

Kirk Cousins has literally made his money representing this tier. He’s yet to guide a defining late-year, deep-playoff push, but he’s been too productive for too long — typically thriving as an efficient play-action artist — to convince his bosses he can be upgraded. More mercurial but also more resilient than usual in 2022’s debut under Kevin O’Connell, he’s an underrated candidate to be traded, if general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah decides that pursuing more upside is worth the risk of a reset.

12. 49ers

With Jimmy Garoppolo headed for free agency, they’ve got two other injury-riddled options at their disposal: Brock Purdy and Trey Lance. Both are young — Purdy is 23, and Lance will turn 23 in May — and both have elite traits; the former displayed veteran-level poise as a 2022 fill-in, and Lance is a naturally gifted runner. But Purdy is coming off a serious elbow injury, and Lance is a total unknown as a thrower coming off his own absence. They’ve got a true boom-or-bust scenario.

13. Lions

It’s fitting they’re in the Vikings’ division, because the Lions have something of a Kirk Cousins-lite in Jared Goff, who can throw a pretty ball and actually surprised with Pro Bowl numbers in 2022 but has clear limitations as an off-script play-maker. One reason they’re this high is because they also own the No. 6 pick in the draft, which could be used to land Goff’s successor.

14. Seahawks

Geno Smith was a revelation in his first year as Russell Wilson’s successor, exploding as a more decisive pocket playmaker. But he’s due for free agency and is still somewhat of an enigma, forcing throws down the stretch and boasting just a single year as an above-average starter during a nine-year career. As a consolation, Seattle also owns the No. 5 and No. 20 picks in the draft, giving them enough ammo to address the position further if they so choose.

15. Giants

Like Smith in Seattle, Daniel Jones enters free agency looking to cash in after an unexpected breakout. Going on 26, he’s significantly younger, and also proved remarkably efficient for much of 2022, excelling as a ground threat for Brian Daboll’s overachieving offense. But it’s still unclear if he can consistently win through the air, and if they commit top dollar to his return, the Giants may need to get creative to upgrade his weapons.

16. Rams

On one hand, Matthew Stafford‘s peak is probably in the rear view; it’ll be hard for Los Angeles to replicate the all-star supporting cast that enabled him to flirt with an MVP candidacy during their 2021 title run. He’s also coming off elbow and neck injuries, which isn’t all that encouraging. But the ex-Lion still possesses a cannon when he’s at full speed, and the Rams should be healthier around him in 2023.

Uneasily settled

These teams are effectively locked into their current starters, even while likely harboring legitimate concerns — some more serious than others. They could be prime candidates to explore an upgrade in the next year or two.

17. Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa flashed top-10 ability in his first work under Mike McDaniel, showing more willingness to air it out. But the youngster is still heavily dependent on timed, mid-range throws. More importantly, he’s one of the biggest medical risks of the entire league after his concussion-riddled 2022. Miami almost certainly needs better insurance.

18. Browns

Deshaun Watson, whose unprecedented contract dictates that he can’t be cut without penalty until 2026, didn’t exactly justify the Browns’ controversial trade in his suspension-shortened debut. He’s still got the physical makeup of a guy who can win in and outside the pocket, but it’s now been three calendar years since he was active as an above-average starter.

19. Broncos

It’s hard to believe Russell Wilson will be any more out of sync than he was in his stale Broncos debut, especially with Sean Payton now in tow as his head coach. But until Wilson consistently settles back into the patient run-heavy, play-action approach that made him a perennial Pro Bowler in Seattle, it’s also hard to endorse Denver’s pricey commitment to him.

20. Cardinals

Not long ago, Kyler Murray was tabbed as a potential MVP finalist, and he’s got both the underrated fastball and ever-shifty legs to warrant such optimism. He’s also finished all four of his NFL seasons either injured or out of rhythm — or both — and his leadership has come into question. As he recovers from a late-year ACL tear, which is all but guaranteed to wipe out part of his 2023 season under new coach Jonathan Gannon, Arizona figures to turn to a placeholder veteran.

21. Patriots

They’ve done Mac Jones no favors, failing to surround him with competent coaching or protection after a relatively solid rookie year. Bill O’Brien’s return as the offensive coordinator should theoretically help. But at the end of the day, Jones probably is what he is: a generally accurate starter who requires a rock-solid setup to stay above water.

22. Steelers

A year after arriving as Pittsburgh’s first Day 1 QB pick since Ben Roethlisberger, Kenny Pickett has at least shown he’s got a fighting spirit, standing tall on a sluggish offense to guide several clutch late-year outings. He was also handled with kid gloves in an old-fashioned approach, so it remains to be seen what kind of ceiling he has as a gunslinger.

23. Titans

Ryan Tannehill had a major hand in reviving Tennessee post-Marcus Mariota, but like Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco, he also benefited supremely from his club’s ground game. He’s also a logical cut or trade candidate after an injury-riddled, overpriced age-34 campaign, leaving the spry but unpolished Malik Willis and a potential stopgap addition to carry the load.

Definitively desperate

These teams are undeniably in the market for QB help and/or competition, both in the short and long term.

24. Texans

Davis Mills hasn’t been gifted an enviable supporting cast as their primary starter of the last two years, but he’s also been turnover-prone at the wrong times. With the No. 2 and No. 15 picks in the draft, and more projected cap space than all but four teams, they are perhaps better positioned than anyone to secure their next face of the franchise.

25. Colts

Matt Ryan was the straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back, folding behind a fading O-line, and after his inevitable release and/or retirement, new head coach Shane Steichen and holdover GM Chris Ballard will be hard-pressed not to use the draft as the solution here. With the No. 4 overall pick at their disposal, they should be primed to come away with a top prospect.

26. Panthers

Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker had strong but fleeting moments in place of the failed Baker Mayfield experiment in 2022, but both are set to hit the open market as Carolina looks to finally land a franchise prospect. With Frank Reich in place atop the staff and other weapons already onboard, they could be in the market for an upper-middle-tier veteran, but they’ve also got the No. 9 overall pick in the draft to explore this year’s rookie pool.

27. Commanders

Carson Wentz is out after one predictably mercurial year behind their iffy line, and Taylor Heinicke is set to depart next via free agency. That leaves Sam Howell as a candidate to open 2023 as QB1. He’s certainly got the deep-ball confidence to surprise. But he’s also a relative unknown, with Washington likely to explore targets in both free agency and the draft, where it owns the No. 16 overall pick and has struggled to land a sustainable starter for years.

28. Jets

Zach Wilson is still around, just two years after they drafted him No. 2 overall, but he held back an otherwise playoff-caliber lineup in 2022, resulting in repeated benchings. Team ownership has since broadcast their intentions to go big for a proven veteran, leaving gutsy but middling backup Mike White on track to leave in free agency. Their issue, of course, lies in the veteran market: A blockbuster move for, say, Aaron Rodgers would still register as a strictly short-term fix.

29. Raiders

After cutting Derek Carr, marking an unceremonious end to their near-decade-long partnership, they’ve also got short-lived fill-in Jarrett Stidham bound for free agency. They do have money and an early pick (No. 7) to put toward a replacement. But as GM Dave Ziegler publicly admitted, odds are they may not be capable of identifying more than a rental solution in 2023.

30. Falcons

Entering Year 3 of Arthur Smith’s head-coaching tenure, they still have no discernible answer at the position, with only 2022 third-rounder Desmond Ridder tabbed for a definite roster spot. Marcus Mariota, who delivered only as a scrambler, is still onboard for now but figures to be set loose. They do have the No. 8 pick in the draft, which is worth monitoring.

31. Buccaneers

Tom Brady may not have been his usual rhythmic self in 2022, but his retirement at age 45 certainly leaves Tampa Bay in a precarious spot. Backup Blaine Gabbert is due for free agency, leaving Kyle Trask, the 2021 third-rounder, as the only in-house candidate to take over. Ex-coach Bruce Arians speaks highly of Trask, who’s got big size (6-5, 236), but the QB has thrown just nine NFL passes. The Bucs don’t have a ton of money to spend on veteran competition, either.

32. Saints

Jameis Winston still has a live arm, but he hasn’t stayed healthy or avoided turnover sprees since, well, ever. He’ll likely be cut. Andy Dalton, meanwhile, was a serviceable 2022 rental but is headed back to free agency. And they don’t pick until No. 30 in the draft, with little cap space available in free agency. Another mid- to low-tier placeholder may be on the way.