Bills vs. Dolphins prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 NFL picks, Week 15 best bets by model on 157-113 roll

For the second time this season, the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will battle with AFC East ramifications on the line. The Bills enter Saturday’s NFL game at 10-3 this season, leading the division with the best record in the AFC. One of Buffalo’s three losses came to Miami in Week 3, though the Bills are currently rolling with four straight victories. Miami is 8-5 overall and 3-4 on the road, with the Dolphins will try to stop a two-game losing skid on Saturday.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Orchard Park. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bills as seven-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 43.5 in the latest Dolphins vs. Bills odds. Before you make any Dolphins vs. Bills picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 15 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 157-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model is also a sizzling 21-5 on straight-up NFL picks over the past two weeks. 

The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Bills and just locked in its picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Dolphins vs. Bills:

• Dolphins vs. Bills spread: Bills -7
• Dolphins vs. Bills over/under: 43.5 points 
• Dolphins vs. Bills money line: Bills -335, Dolphins +260 
• MIA: Dolphins are 6-7 against the spread this season 
• BUF: Bills are 6-6-1 against the spread this season 
• Dolphins vs. Bills picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Why the Dolphins can cover

The Dolphins are in the top eight in rushing yards allowed (1,408) and are yielding only 4.3 yards per carry this season. The Dolphins also have a window into havoc-creation against a Buffalo team that has the fifth-most turnovers (20) this season. On offense, Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in yards per pass attempt (8.7) and ranks in the top five in QBR (73.5), passer rating (108.2) and passing touchdowns (22).

Tagovailoa is flanked by a pair of 1,000-yard wide receivers and Miami ranks in the top five in passing yards (3,613), passing touchdowns (25), and net yards per pass attempt (7.4). The Dolphins are averaging 24.3 points and 367.8 total yards per game, ranking in the top 10 in both categories. Miami is excellent in the red zone, converting 62.5% of trips inside the 20-yard line to touchdowns in 2022. See which team to pick here.

Why the Bills can cover

The Bills rank in the top five in scoring offense, total offense, first downs, passing touchdowns, and third down efficiency this season. The Bills are also elite on defense, however, and that combination forms the basis of a 10-3 team. Buffalo is No. 2 in allowing only 17.0 points per game and opponents are producing only 319.3 total yards per game. The Bills have created 22 turnovers, a top-five mark in the league, and Buffalo is in the top six in passing touchdowns allowed (15), interceptions (13), and rushing yards allowed (1,298).

Buffalo is elite in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on only 47.4% of trips inside the 20-yard line, and the Bills can bank on Miami’s rushing struggles. The Dolphins are No. 29 in rushing yards (1,168) and No. 25 in yards per carry (4.1), with Miami also landing below the league average with a 37.8% clip on third down. See which team to pick here.

How to make Dolphins vs. Bills picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, with both teams projected to throw for more than 250 yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Dolphins on Saturday? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Dolphins spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 157-113 roll on NFL picks, and find out.