Fantasy Football Week 16 Wide Receiver Rankings: Weather a big factor for Chris Olave, Amari Cooper, others

Before we get to my Week 16 rankings for wide receiver, here are my thoughts on three of the biggest questions facing the position this week: 

Can you still trust A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith? 

Jalen Hurts‘ injury, well, hurts the Eagles offense. There’s no question about it. The Eagles have built so much of what they do around his dual-threat abilities, and they’ll lose an explosive element without that. But Gardner Minshew is a pretty solid passer in his own right, and I don’t think we’re going to see too much of a decline for the Eagles star wide receivers. I won’t go so far as to say it’s good for them, because I don’t think losing your starting quarterback is ever a good thing. However, the Eagles will likely be a bit more pass-heavy with Minshew, and he’s good enough to get the ball to his very good receivers. I moved Brown and Smith down a couple of spots when the news broke, but Brown is still a top-10 WR, and Smith is still in my top 20. I’m still starting both, in other words, even against a tough Cowboys defense. 

Is DeAndre Hopkins still a must-start WR?

It looks like Hopkins is going to be down to a third-string quarterback in Trace McSorley this week, and we’re in completely uncharted territory here – McSorley has attempted 39 passes in three NFL seasons, 25 of which have come over the past two weeks in relief. He’s only targeted Hopkins five times on those 25 attempts, but that’s far too small a sample size to draw any kind of meaningful conclusion. Hopkins should still be the primary target in this Cardinals offense, and Kliff Kingsbury is sure to draw up some quick, easy throws to make things easier on McSorley, but that still might not be enough for Hopkins to be worth using. I’ll probably keep rolling him out there, but there’s a decent chance this Cardinals offense is just a disaster, and McSorley’s athleticism could lead him to abandoning the pocket rather than looking down the field, costing Hopkins a few opportunities. He’s more like a WR2 than the must-start guy he’s been all season, but I’ll still start him over the likes of Antonio Gibson and Gabe Davis this week, at least. 

Is Chris Olave still a must-start WR? 

For the second time in the past four weeks, Olave played less than half the Saints snaps in Week 15. That’s not as concerning as it sounds, because he still ran a route on 18 of 21 pass snaps, but … the Saints still only passed the ball 21 times Sunday. That is a problem in its own right, especially since that seems to be a conscious decision – Andy Dalton hasn’t thrown more than 29 passes since Week 8. Olave has had six or fewer targets in four of his past five games, and while he’s still managed to be productive more often than not, it’s made his margin for error much slimmer. The Saints want to run a conservative offense, and that’s holding Olave back. Add in the horrible weather conditions, including winds of up to 50 mph, the Saints will be playing in against Cleveland, and it’s pretty hard to justify starting Olave. He’s a fringe WR3 for this week. 

Has Zay Jones surpassed Christian Kirk as the Jaguars go-to WR?

I think it’s still close – Jones has 51 targets over the past five games, but Kirk is right behind him with 46. However, this week, I think Kirk probably has to be ranked higher, if only because he’s a lot less likely to run into Jets rookie phenom Sauce Gardner. Gardner plays almost exclusively on the outside of the formation, while Kirk plays in the slot on 68.3% of his snaps, compared to just 30.1% for Jones. The Lions didn’t throw Gardner’s way once on 38 coverage snaps last week, and while I don’t necessarily think the Jaguars will copy that strategy, I think it’s fair to say that the slot is a safer place to play against this defense. That could help Kirk, though I think both are viable WR2s at this point. 

Was Christian Watson‘s quiet Week 15 a sign of things to come? 

As I’m writing this, I just watched Aaron Rodgers go to Watson on back-to-back plays near the end zone – Watson was tripped up inside the 5-yard line on one and then there was seemingly some miscommunication on a hot route that Watson didn’t see, leading to an incomplete pass. As a result, Watson ended up with a pretty pedestrian game – four catches for 46 yards on six targets – that could have been a pretty solid one. It ends his touchdown streak at four games and reminds us there’s a pretty low floor here since Watson still isn’t earning targets at a high rate. His big-play and red-zone potential still make him a viable start, but he’s not going to score every week even if Aaron Rodgers trusts him, and his role isn’t necessarily showing signs of growing. Watson is a solid starting option, but not necessarily the star you might have hoped. 

Here are my Week 16 rankings for WR: 

1. Justin Jefferson vs. NYG
2. Tyreek Hill vs. GB
3. Ja’Marr Chase @NE
4. Davante Adams @PIT
5. Stefon Diggs @CHI
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown @CAR
7. Chris Godwin @ARI
8. A.J. Brown @DAL
9. Keenan Allen @IND
10. Tee Higgins @NE
11. CeeDee Lamb vs. PHI
12. DK Metcalf @KC
13. Jaylen Waddle vs. GB
14. DeAndre Hopkins vs. TB
15. DeVonta Smith @DAL
16. Terry McLaurin @SF
17. Mike Williams @IND
18. Diontae Johnson vs. LV
19. Mike Evans @ARI
20. JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. SEA
21. Michael Pittman vs. LAC
22. Christian Kirk @NYJ
23. Christian Watson @MIA
24. Jerry Jeudy @LAR
25. Zay Jones @NYJ
26. Garrett Wilson vs. JAX
27. Brandon Aiyuk vs. WAS
28. Drake London @BAL
29. Jakobi Meyers vs. CIN
30. Courtland Sutton @LAR
31. Chris Olave @CLE
32. Adam Thielen vs. NYG
33. Curtis Samuel @SF
34. Brandin Cooks @TEN
35. Amari Cooper vs. NO
36. D.J. Moore vs. DET
37. Marquise Goodwin @KC
38. Donovan Peoples-Jones vs. NO
39. D.J. Chark @CAR
40. Chris Moore @TEN
41. Marquise Brown vs. TB
42. Darius Slayton @MIN
43. Gabe Davis @CHI
44. Romeo Doubs @MIA
45. Josh Palmer @IND
46. Mack Hollins @PIT
47. Allen Lazard @MIA
48. Michael Gallup vs. PHI
49. Tyler Boyd @NE
50. George Pickens vs. LV
51. DeMarcus Robinson vs. ATL
52. Parris Campbell vs. LAC
53. KJ Osborn vs. NYG
54. Isaiah Hodgins @MIN
55. Hunter Renfrow @PIT
56. Marvin Jones @NYJ
57. Richie James @MIN
58. Robert Woods vs. HOU
59. Jahan Dotson @SF
60. Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. SEA