NBA East playoff picture: Knicks lose ground; Miami’s door open; tiebreakers, projections, current matchups

The New York Knicks saw their nine-game win streak end on Tuesday night against Charlotte. With the loss, the Knicks fall into a tie with No. 6 Brooklyn, two back of the No. 4 Cavaliers in the loss column. 

Miami, currently the No. 7 seed, has a great shot to catch either Brooklyn or New York to rise above the play-in line. The Heat are three back of the No. 6 seed, but they have two head-to-head matchups with both Brooklyn and New York remaining. 

Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Eastern Conference entering play on Wednesday. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season, or until all seeds are clinched. 

Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the  No. 8 seed. 

READ: Western Conference playoff picture

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

The Bucks hold a three-game lead over the Celtics in the loss column. They play one more time on March 30 with the season series tied 1-1. The Bucks lead No. 3 Philly by four in the loss column, which feels pretty safe with 17 to play. 

• Projected seed: 1
• Current first-round matchup: TBD
• Tiebreaker vs. Boston: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Philadelphia: Sixers lead 2-1 with one to play

2. Boston Celtics (45-21)

The Celtics have lost three straight, blowing a double-digit lead in each. Boston now trails No. 1 Milwaukee by three in the loss column and holds just a one-loss lead over No. 3 Philadelphia, though that lead is effectively two games with Boston having cliched the tiebreaker over Philly. The Celtics should be safe to end up no worse than third, as they lead the No. 4 Cavaliers by five in the loss column. 

• Projected seed: 2
• Current first-round matchup: Winner of Heat/Hawks play-in
• Tiebreaker vs. Milwaukee: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Philadelphia: Boston clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland: Cavs clinched

The Sixers trail the No. 2 Celtics by just one in the loss column, but Boston has clinched the tiebreaker. They lead the No. 4 Cavs by four games. At the moment, the Sixers feel like a good bet to stay at No. 3. 

• Projected seed: 3
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Brooklyn
• Tiebreaker vs. Milwaukee: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Philadelphia: Boston clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland: Cavs lead 2-1 with one to play

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (41-26)

The Cavs are trying to hold off the No. 5 Knicks, who fell to Charlotte on Tuesday and are thus two games back of Cleveland in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. The Cavs also hold just a two-game lead over the No. 6 Nets with two more head-to-head matchups remaining. 

• Projected seed: 4
• Current first-round matchup: vs. New York
• Tiebreaker vs. Boston: Cavs clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Philadelphia: Cavs lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. New York: Knicks lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Brooklyn: Nets lead 1-0 with two to play

5. New York Knicks (39-28)

The Knicks saw their nine-game win streak end against Charlotte on Tuesday, dropping them two games back of the No. 4 Cavs and into a tie in the loss column with the No. 6 Nets. The Knicks hold a three-game lead over the No. 7 Heat in their quest to stay above the play-in line, but keep in mind they play the Heat two more times. 

• Projected seed: 5
• Current first-round matchup: at Cleveland
• Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland: Knicks lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Brooklyn: Knicks currently own via division win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Miami: Knicks lead 2-0 with two to play

6. Brooklyn Nets (37-28)

The Nets are hanging tough since trading Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They hold a three-loss lead over the No. 7 Heat to stay above the play-in line. They are tied with the No. 5 Knicks, and trail the No. 4 Cavs by two in the loss column. 

• Projected seed: 6
• Current first-round matchup: at Philadelphia
• Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland: Nets lead 1-0 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. New York: Knicks currently own via division win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Miami: Nets lead 2-0 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Atlanta: Nets lead 2-1 with one to play

PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT

7. Miami Heat (35-31)

Miami is three losses back of No. 6 Brooklyn and No. 5 New York with two matchups remaining against each, so there’s a real chance to get above the play-in. At worst, they firmed up their spot on the No. 7 seed with a win over the No. 8 Hawks on Monday, which sealed the tiebreaker over Atlanta, thus making Miami’s lead an effective three games. 

• Projected seed: 7
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Hawks (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. New York: Knicks lead 2-0 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Brooklyn: Nets lead 2-0 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Atlanta: Miami clinched. 
• Tiebreaker vs. Toronto: Raptors lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Miami leads 2-1 with one to play

8. Atlanta Hawks (32-33)

The Hawks fell to Miami on Monday to fall two games back of the Heat, who also sealed the tiebreaker over Atlanta, making that lead effectively three games. 

Atlanta has to focus on staying in the No. 8 seed so they only have to win one play-in game to advance. That’s going to get dicey. The Hawks are just one loss up on the No. 9 Raptors, though that lead is effectively two with Atlanta having secured the tiebreaker. Atlanta also holds just a one-loss lead over the No. 10 Wizards with three head-to-head matchups remaining. 

• Projected seed: 8
• Current first-round matchup: at Miami (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Brooklyn: Nets lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Miami: Heat clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Toronto: Atlanta clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Wizards lead 1-0 with three to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Chicago: Bulls lead 2-1 with one to play

9. Toronto Raptors (32-34)

After falling to Denver on Monday, the Raptors are one back of No. 8 Atlanta and one up on No. 10 Washington. As for staying above the lottery line, Toronto holds an effective three-loss advantage over the No. 11 Bulls with the tiebreaker secured, and a three-loss lead over the No. 12 Pacers as well. 

• Projected seed: 10
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Wizards (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Miami: Raptors lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Atlanta: Hawks clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Indiana: Pacers clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Chicago: Raptors clinched

10. Washington Wizards (31-34)

The Wizards defeated Detroit on Tuesday. They are loss one back of No. 9 Toronto, two clear of the No. 11 Bulls and three clear of the No. 12 Pacers. 

• Projected seed: 9
• Current first-round matchup: at Toronto (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Toronto: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Indiana: Pacers currently own via conference win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Chicago: Bulls currently own via conference win percentage

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

11. Chicago Bulls (29-36)

The Bulls are two back of the No. 10 Wizards and currently own the tiebreaker. They are tied with the No. 11 Pacers but Indiana has sealed the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: Lottery
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Bulls currently own via conference win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Indiana: Pacers clinched

12. Indiana Pacers (29-37)

The Pacers are two back of No. 10 Washington and currently own the tiebreaker. They are tied with the No. 12 Bulls with the tiebreaker secured. 

• Projected seed: Lottery
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Pacers currently own via conference win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Chicago: Pacers clinched