NBA standings, Eastern Conference playoff picture: Heat have tough climb to get above play-in line

On Wednesday night, there were four notable movements in the Eastern Conference playoff/play-in races. 

• The Miami Heat lost to the Cavaliers, which puts No. 7 Miami in a tough spot to climb above the play-in line at four games back of No. 6 Brooklyn. 
• The Hawks beat the Wizards, bringing Atlanta back to within an effective two games of the Heat, who own the tiebreaker. 
• The Wizards’ loss, combined with Chicago’s win over Denver, brings the No. 11 Bulls within one game of No. 10 Washington. 
• Toronto dropped into a tied with No. 10 Washington, also just one up on Chicago for the last play-in spot, with its loss to the Clippers. 

Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Eastern Conference entering play on Thursday, March 9. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season, or until all seeds are clinched. 

Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the  No. 8 seed. 

READ: Western Conference playoff picture

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

The Bucks hold a three-game lead over the Celtics in the loss column. They play one more time on March 30 with the season series tied 1-1. The Bucks lead No. 3 Philly by four in the loss column, which feels pretty safe with 17 to play. 

• Projected seed: 1
• Current first-round matchup: TBD
• Tiebreaker vs. Boston: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Philadelphia: Sixers lead 2-1 with one to play

2. Boston Celtics (46-21)

Boston trails No. 1 Milwaukee by three in the loss column and holds just a one-loss lead over No. 3 Philadelphia, though that lead is effectively two games with Boston having cliched the tiebreaker over Philly. The Celtics should be safe to end up no worse than third, as they lead the No. 4 Cavaliers by five in the loss column. 

• Projected seed: 2
• Current first-round matchup: Winner of Heat/Hawks play-in
• Tiebreaker vs. Milwaukee: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Philadelphia: Boston clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland: Cavs clinched

The Sixers trail the No. 2 Celtics by just one in the loss column, but Boston has clinched the tiebreaker. They lead the No. 4 Cavs by four games. At the moment, the Sixers feel like a good bet to stay at No. 3. 

• Projected seed: 3
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Brooklyn
• Tiebreaker vs. Milwaukee: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Philadelphia: Boston clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland: Cavs lead 2-1 with one to play

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (42-26)

The Cavs are trying to hold off the No. 5 Knicks, who are two games back of Cleveland in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. The Cavs also hold just a two-game lead over the No. 6 Nets with two more head-to-head matchups remaining. 

• Projected seed: 4
• Current first-round matchup: vs. New York
• Tiebreaker vs. Boston: Cavs clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Philadelphia: Cavs lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. New York: Knicks lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Brooklyn: Nets lead 1-0 with two to play

5. New York Knicks (39-28)

The Knicks saw their nine-game win streak end against Charlotte on Tuesday, dropping them two games back of the No. 4 Cavs and into a tie in the loss column with the No. 6 Nets. The Knicks hold a three-game lead over the No. 7 Heat in their quest to stay above the play-in line, but keep in mind they play the Heat two more times. 

• Projected seed: 5
• Current first-round matchup: at Cleveland
• Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland: Knicks lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Brooklyn: Knicks currently own via division win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Miami: Knicks lead 2-0 with two to play

6. Brooklyn Nets (37-28)

The Nets are hanging tough since trading Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They hold a three-loss lead over the No. 7 Heat to stay above the play-in line. They are tied with the No. 5 Knicks, and trail the No. 4 Cavs by two in the loss column. 

• Projected seed: 6
• Current first-round matchup: at Philadelphia
• Tiebreaker vs. Cleveland: Nets lead 1-0 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. New York: Knicks currently own via division win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Miami: Nets lead 2-0 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Atlanta: Nets lead 2-1 with one to play

PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT

7. Miami Heat (35-32)

After falling to Cleveland on Wednesday, Miami is four losses back of No. 6 Brooklyn and No. 5 New York with two matchups remaining against each. The Heat lead the No. 8 Hawks by an effective two games with the tiebreaker secured. 

• Projected seed: 7
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Hawks (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. New York: Knicks lead 2-0 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Brooklyn: Nets lead 2-0 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Atlanta: Miami clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Toronto: Raptors lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Miami leads 2-1 with one to play

8. Atlanta Hawks (33-33)

The Hawks held off the Wizards on Wednesday to move two games up on them with two head-to-head matchups remaining. Atlanta is an effective three games up on No. 9 Toronto with the tiebreaker secured. Atlanta is an effective two games back of No. 7 Miami, which owns the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 8
• Current first-round matchup: at Miami (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Brooklyn: Nets lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Miami: Heat clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Toronto: Atlanta clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Tied 1-1 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Chicago: Bulls lead 2-1 with one to play

9. Toronto Raptors (32-35)

Toronto lost to the Clippers on Wednesday to fall into a tie in the loss column with No. 10 Washington, juts one loss up on the No. 11 Bulls. Toronto is an effective three games back of the No. 8 Hawks, who have secured the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 10
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Wizards (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Miami: Raptors lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Atlanta: Hawks clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Indiana: Pacers clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Chicago: Raptors clinched

10. Washington Wizards (31-35)

The Wizards fell to Atlanta on Wednesday and now hold just a one-game lead over the No. 11 Bulls as they try to hang onto a play-in spot. 

• Projected seed: 9
• Current first-round matchup: at Toronto (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Toronto: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Indiana: Pacers currently own via conference win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Chicago: Bulls currently own via conference win percentage

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

11. Chicago Bulls (30-36)

The Bulls defeated Denver on Wednesday and are one back of the No. 10 Wizards and No. 9 Raptors. 

• Projected seed: Lottery
• Tiebreaker vs. Toronto: Raptors clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Bulls currently own via conference win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Indiana: Pacers clinched

12. Indiana Pacers (29-37)

The Pacers are two back of No. 10 Washington and currently own the tiebreaker. They are one back the No. 11 Bulls with the tiebreaker secured. 

• Projected seed: Lottery
• Tiebreaker vs. Toronto: Pacers clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Washington: Pacers currently own via conference win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Chicago: Pacers clinched