NFL Week 16 early odds: Cowboys slim favorites over Eagles in NFC East showdown, Bengals favored at Patriots

Week 15 might have been the craziest week we’ve seen thus far in 2022. On Saturday, we had the Colts surrender the biggest lead in NFL history as the Vikings stormed back after falling into a 33-0 deficit at halftime. Then, we had the Jags upset the Cowboys in overtime, and the Chiefs survived an upset of their own with an OT win in Houston. Of course, there was also the inexplicable lateral by the Patriots that was caught by Chandler Jones and returned for a touchdown to give the Raiders a win at the buzzer. Needless to say, it was a doozy of a weekend in the NFL. 

While we still have one more game to go between the Packers and Rams on Monday night, let’s take our first glimpse of all the Week 16 matchups and get our impression of the opening lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers see coming out on top.

Note: All games are on Saturday, Dec. 24 unless stated otherwise. 

Week 16 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook)

Jaguars (6-9) at Jets (7-7), Thursday

Featured Game | New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Opening line: Jets -2.5

After opening as a 2.5-point favorite at home, this line has now drawn even between the Jaguars and Jets. Jacksonville is making a late-season push to snatch the AFC South from the Titans and pulled off an overtime win over the Cowboys on Sunday to pull within a game of first place in the division. A big piece of this surge by the Jags has been the emergence of Trevor Lawrence, who has a 111.2 passer rating and a 70.4 completion percentage in the last six games to go along with 14 touchdowns and one pick. Jacksonville is also 4-1-1 ATS over that stretch. Meanwhile, New York also needs this game to remain in the playoff conversation, especially after falling to the Lions at home.  

Featured Game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons

Opening line: Ravens -6.5

Baltimore is now a full touchdown favorite over the Falcons, who started Desmond Ridder for the first time on Sunday. The rookie completed 13 of his 26 passes for 97 yards while rushing for 38 yards on six carries in the loss to New Orleans. As for the Ravens, they dropped out of first place in the AFC North with the loss to Cleveland on Saturday and are now the No. 5 seed in the AFC. While Ridder didn’t exactly light it up in his debut, there’s a case to be made to back the Falcons here. On the season, the Ravens are 0-5 ATS as a home favorite. 

Lions (7-7) at Panthers (5-9)

Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions

Opening line: Lions -2.5

Detroit’s continued hot streak has them very much in the playoff mix as they are right on the doorstep of leaping over Seattle and Washington for the No. 7 seed. The Lions won their sixth game in seven weeks as they took down the Jets in the final minutes of the game. More importantly for our discussion here, the Lions are 7-0 ATS over this run. They are also 4-2 ATS on the road this season. The Panthers are still very much in the mix in the NFC South despite losing to the Steelers at home on Sunday. Because the Bucs also lost in Week 15, they remain just a game behind them in the division, so they’ll be firing on all cylinders on Saturday. Carolina is 4-4 ATS at home this season but is 4-1 ATS as a home dog. 

Featured Game | Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills

Opening line: Bills -10

Buffalo is now a 9-point road favorite as they gear up for a trip to Chicago to face the Bears. The Bills outlasted the Dolphins on Saturday night, while the Bears did give the Eagles a run for their money. Chicago is 3-2 as a home underdog this season, which includes a cover against Philly on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-3-1 ATS as a road favorite entering Week 16 and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. 

Featured Game | Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints

Opening line: Browns -3

This line has stayed the same through Week 15 as Cleveland is a field goal favorite at home over New Orleans. It pulled out the first win under Deshaun Watson on Saturday against the Ravens. Watson was 18 of 28 for 161 yards and a touchdown, and the Browns leaned on the running game as they rushed 33 times for 143 yards. This could be a ground-and-pound type of game on both ends as the Saints utilized their rushing attack to help take down the Falcons to move to 5-9. New Orleans has been the worst road team to bet on this season as it is 1-5 ATS away from the Superdome.   

Seahawks (7-7) at Chiefs (11-3)

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks

Opening line: Chiefs -9.5

Kansas City is now a double-digit favorite as it is set to host Seattle with this line moving up a half point to Chiefs -10. The Seahawks have turned into a pumpkin over the last few weeks and are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. However, K.C. hasn’t been much better in terms of betting on them as they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven contests. Seattle is 3-3 ATS on the road, while the Chiefs are 1-4-1 ATS at Arrowhead. 

Giants (8-5-1) at Vikings (11-3)

Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants

Opening line: Vikings -4.5

Minnesota is now a 3.5-point favorite over the Giants at home. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history on Saturday, erasing a 33-0 halftime lead by the Colts to earn their 11th win of the year. While that comeback is jaw-dropping, Minnesota continues to feel a bit like fool’s gold and the number moving toward New York may reflect that. The Giants hung on to beat the Commanders on Sunday night and are now the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff picture and 10-4 ATS on the season. As a home favorite, the Vikings are 4-3 ATS. 

Bengals (10-4) at Patriots (7-7)

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Opening line: Bengals -3

Cincinnati has crossed a key number and is now considered a 3.5-point favorite over a Patriots team reeling from a late-game collapse against the Raiders. New England inexplicably lateraled the ball in the final seconds with the game tied at 24 and the Raiders picked up the loose ball and ran it back for the game-winning touchdown. That loss sent them out of the playoff picture and back to .500 on the year. Now, they’ll need to pull off the upset at home against a surging Bengals team that is now in first place in the AFC North after mounting a comeback over the Bucs on Sunday. Cincinnati is a league-best 11-3 ATS this season, while the Patriots are 3-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium. 

Texans (1-12-1) at Titans (7-7)

Featured Game | Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

Opening line: Titans -8.5

This line has moved in the direction of the Texans as the Titans are now considered a 7-point favorite. This comes as Houston has covered in back-to-back weeks and nearly won outright against both the Cowboys and Chiefs, despite being double-digit dogs. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s grip on first place in the AFC South is starting to soften as they dropped to 7-7 after falling to the Chargers. The Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, while the Texans are a sneaky 6-7-1 ATS on the year. 

Commanders (7-6-1) at 49ers (10-4)

Featured Game | San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders

Opening line: 49ers -6.5

San Francisco is now a full touchdown favorite over Washington coming out of Week 15. The Niners were able to take down the Seahawks in Seattle to secure the NFC West and are within striking distance of possibly moving up to the No. 2 seed in the conference. As for the Commanders, they fell to the Giants at home on Sunday night after a couple of fumbles by quarterback Taylor Heinicke led to 10 points being scored by New York. Both of these teams are above .500 ATS on the season, but the Niners have been the hotter bet as of late. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games and have covered 73% of their last 26 games overall. 

Eagles (13-1) at Cowboys (10-4)

Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Opening line: Cowboys -1

Dallas has moved to a 1.5-point favorite in what is a massive NFC East showdown with the Eagles. Both of these clubs have already clinched a playoff berth, but they’ll certainly be trying to send a message in this game for if they see one another again come the postseason. This game would have had a little more juice in terms of the division race had Dallas not lost to the Jaguars last week, but it’ll still be appointment viewing regardless. Both of these teams are 8-6 ATS this season, but Philly is just 2-5 ATS on the road. The home team has also covered seven of the last eight matchups in this rivalry. 

Raiders (6-8) at Steelers (6-8)

Featured Game | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Opening line: Steelers -1

Pittsburgh is now a 2.5-point home favorite over Las Vegas. With Mitch Trubiksy under center in place of the injured Kenny Pickett, the Steelers pulled out a win over Carolina thanks to three rushing touchdowns. They now head back to Acrisure Stadium where bettors haven’t had a ton of luck riding with the home team. Coming into this matchup, the Steelers are 2-3-1 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Raiders pulled off a crazy victory over the Patriots as Chandler Jones took a botched lateral by New England to the house for a last-second game-winning touchdown. They are 3-5 ATS on the road this season and are 3-12 ATS against teams with a losing record. 

Packers (5-8) at Dolphins (8-6), Sunday

Featured Game | Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers

Opening line: Dolphins -4

Miami has moved to a 4.5-point favorite, but there may be more movement following Green Bay’s matchup with the Rams on Monday night. The Dolphins couldn’t pull off the upset on the road in Buffalo and dropped to 8-6 and are now the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture thanks to the Chargers victory over Tennessee. It heads back to the friendly confines of Hard Rock Stadium where it is 4-2 ATS this season. Dating back over their 28 games, the Dolphins have been a stellar bet as they are 20-8 ATS over that stretch and face a Packers club that is 3-4 ATS on the road. Aaron Rodgers‘ splits away from Lambeau Field also trend favorably towards the Dolphins here. 

Broncos (4-10) at Rams (4-9), Sunday

Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Denver Broncos

Opening line: Even

Similar to Packers-Dolphins, this line could see movement depending on what happens in the Rams game on Monday night, but they are currently even odds with the Broncos in Week 16. With Russell Wilson sidelined, Denver pulled out the 24-15 win over Arizona at home. While Brett Rypien was efficient, the team did lean on running back Latavius Murray, who rushed for 130 yards and a touchdown in the win. They now take on a Rams team that has been banged up down the stretch and is likely starting Baker Mayfield the rest of the way. Denver is 2-4 ATS on the road this season but could have a solid chance of making a game of it at SoFi Stadium as the Rams are 3-5 ATS at home. 

Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opening line: Buccaneers -3

Despite blowing a 17-point lead to the Bengals on Sunday, the Buccaneers have moved to a 4-point road favorite over the Cardinals for this Christmas Day matchup. That’s likely due to Kyler Murray (ACL) going down for the year along with backup Colt McCoy departing in their loss to the Broncos on Sunday early due to a concussion. The Buccaneers are 2-4 ATS on the road this season and are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. However, State Farm Stadium has not been a kind place for the Cardinals as they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. 

Chargers (8-6) at Colts (4-9-1), Monday

Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Opening line: Chargers -2.5

Los Angeles has hit two critical numbers on this line since it opened at 2.5. It is now laying a field goal and a hook as a 3.5-point favorite on the road in Indy. The Colts looked like they were going to pull off a mega upset over the Vikings on Saturday after going up 33-0 at halftime, but allowed Minnesota to complete the largest comeback in NFL history to drop them to 4-9-1 on the year. As for the Chargers, they notched a last-second field goal to get the win over the Titans to leap back into the playoff picture in the AFC. L.A. is 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, while the Colts are 3-3 ATS at home this season.