Ravens use franchise tag on Lamar Jackson: Top 12 teams likely to pursue star QB in 2023 free agency

It finally happened: the Ravens on Tuesday used the franchise tag on Lamar Jackson, securing the star quarterback for the 2023 NFL season. Or did they? While Baltimore has indeed used the tag, as long expected, the team has opted for the non-exclusive tender. Not only does this tentatively retain Jackson at a lower price — $32.4 million compared to the $45M guaranteed by an exclusive tag — but, more importantly, it opens the door for other teams to pursue the former MVP.

An exclusive tag would’ve prevented Jackson from testing the open market. The Ravens’ decision to go non-exclusive, however, enables other teams to negotiate with Jackson starting March 13, when legal tampering begins. Should Jackson agree to an outside offer, Baltimore will have the opportunity to match said offer, or allow the QB to sign elsewhere and receive two first-round draft picks in return. Both Jackson and the Ravens have said publicly they desire a long-term partnership, but this is the clearest indication yet that the two sides could actually split.

With that said, which teams are most likely to pursue Jackson in 2023 free agency?

ESPN and NFL Media report that Atlanta will not be pursuing Jackson, but common sense says they should — and might reconsider. Only the Bears have more projected cap space, and while Atlanta has a clear-cut need for a short- and long-term answer at QB, it may be picking too late in the first round (No. 8 overall) to secure one of this year’s top prospects. A year after pursuing Deshaun Watson, coach Arthur Smith is going into his third season atop the staff without any discernible QB future.

11. Detroit Lions

They like Jared Goff well enough to retain him as a veteran placeholder/mentor, and they’re decently positioned to add his successor at the top of the 2023 draft. But with extra picks from their previous Matthew Stafford trade, which obviously brought Goff to town, they’re also capable of exploring a big veteran splash. Imagine Dan Campbell’s energy paired with Jackson’s natural electricity on an ascending roster in a potentially wide-open NFC North.

Ryan Tannehill is under contract, but he’s very expendable after a disappointing injury-riddled season in which GM Jon Robinson was exiled. A full-on rebuild figures to be in the cards as franchise favorites like Derrick Henry are shopped, but with Mike Vrabel always in the playoff hunt, perhaps a veteran swing is still in the cards. New GM Ran Carthon was part of the 49ers front office that gambled on Trey Lance’s athleticism in the 2021 draft, perhaps making them a stylistic fit for Jackson’s run-heavy approach.

They actually make a lot of sense as a deep sleeper. Kirk Cousins proved more resilient than usual under Kevin O’Connell in 2022, but he’s entering a contract year and has proven, with his resume and reputation as an on-schedule play-action pocket passer, that he fits squarely in the NFL’s middle tier of QBs. Amid an overhaul of older, expensive veterans, young GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah feels exactly like the kind of executive to explore an unorthodox shift to a play-maker like Jackson, especially if the price tag is just two first-rounders and Minnesota isn’t well-positioned to draft a top prospect. Adofo-Mensah has publicly pondered Cousins’ future in the past, and the Vikings have an elite weapon in Justin Jefferson to pair with such a dynamic QB.

Everyone, including team ownership, knows they’ve gotta stop with the veteran QB carousel. But Jackson would represent a splashy long-term investment. Even so, GM Chris Ballard and new coach Shane Steichen will surely rather take advantage of their draft positioning (No. 4 overall) and/or aggressively move up to secure a young gun on his rookie deal, allocating other resources to the supporting cast.

Bill Belichick has gone on record praising Jackson as MVP-level material, and he’s reset the offensive structure after 2022’s failures, reuniting with coordinator Bill O’Brien and staying mum on incumbent QB Mac Jones‘ long-term job security. At 70, Belichick is surely ready to make a win-now pivot after three lackluster post-Tom Brady seasons. And with plenty of cap space at his disposal, he’d be able to afford Jackson, pairing the QB with a run-first offense built around backs (i.e. Rhamondre Stevenson) and tight ends (i.e. Hunter Henry).

It’s a bit hard to fathom how GM Jason Licht would keep Tampa remotely intact while getting under the cap to afford Jackson, but financials aside, it makes sense: Tom Brady is retired “for good,” the Bucs probably aren’t gonna wanna pivot to rebuild mode after three straight playoff runs (no matter what Bruce Arians says about Kyle Trask), and Jackson would theoretically still have top weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, not to mention while playing in his sunny home state.

Few franchises are quicker to explore the veteran QB market, and while 2022 rookie Sam Howell may be a reasonable candidate to open next season under center, Jackson is the kind of star power they’ve long lacked. Coach Ron Rivera hit his peak in Carolina utilizing a mobile QB in Cam Newton. They’d also offer Jackson at least one premium weapon in Terry McLaurin, as well as close proximity to his existing Baltimore community.

GM Dave Ziegler has already cautioned that the Raiders’ answer at QB may not come in 2023, but that’s just reality for any team resetting under center. While Jimmy Garoppolo makes sense because of his Patriots connection to coach Josh McDaniels, a lot of the rumblings out of Vegas are that McDaniels would prefer to build a younger signal-caller over the long haul. Few players would inject more life into their still-relatively new NFL market than Jackson, and they’ve got the cap space to go big, a year after landing a No. 1 wideout in Davante Adams.

Owner David Tepper is getting impatient with the club’s half-hearted QB gambles, and new coach Frank Reich is a known QB whisperer atop the staff. While they might prefer to add a new face of the franchise via the draft, they don’t pick in the first round until No. 9 overall, after QB-needy teams in the Texans, Colts, Seahawks, Lions, Raiders and Falcons. They also courted Derek Carr, suggesting they’re OK going the veteran route. Cap space may not be abundant here, but they have the kind of ascending lineup — with a No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore — that could appeal to Jackson, especially in a wide-open NFC South.

Well this certainly complicates the Aaron Rodgers drama, doesn’t it? A-Rod has long made sense as their No. 1 target, and all signs point toward the Packers great finally bidding Green Bay farewell (or the other way around). But as impressive as Rodgers’ resume is, he’s also going on 40, whereas Jackson is freshly 26. They’re not as flush with cap space, but they’ll make anything work for a chance at a proven signal-caller. Few clubs would offer the QB such a quick path back to the playoffs. And general manager Joe Douglas has an extensive history working with the Ravens, spending 15 years with the team as a scout.

They are limited in terms of immediate ability to court Jackson, seeing as they don’t own a 2023 first-round pick and thus can’t properly compensate the Ravens for acquiring the QB. But there are lots of reasons they might pursue a handshake agreement to complete negotiations after the 2023 draft. Incumbent QB Tua Tagovailoa made strides under Mike McDaniel, but with such a scary injury history, his availability can’t be trusted. And that’s saying nothing of Tua’s off-script play-making (or lack thereof). Jackson would give McDaniel’s 49ers-bred run game a true X-factor, and Jackson would be getting easily the best weapons he’s ever had, as well as a chance to play football an hour from where he grew up.