Suns vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, line, start time: 2023 NBA picks, March 5 best bets from proven model

The Dallas Mavericks host the Phoenix Suns for the fourth and final regular season matchup between the teams on Sunday. The Mavericks, led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, are 33-31 overall and 21-12 at home this season, with Dallas winning two of the first three matchups against Phoenix. The Suns are 35-29 overall this season and led by a duo of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Deandre Ayton (knee) is listed as questionable for Phoenix, with Terrence Ross (toe) listed as probable and Landry Shamet (foot) ruled out. Maxi Kleber (hamstring) and Davis Bertans (calf) are listed as probable for Dallas.

Tip-off is at 1 p.m. ET in Dallas. Caesars Sportsbook lists this game as a pick’em, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 234.5 in the latest Suns vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Suns picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 20 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 57-30 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Suns vs. Mavericks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavs vs. Suns:

• Suns vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks PK
• Suns vs. Mavericks over/under: 234.5 points
• Suns vs. Mavericks money line: Mavericks -105, Suns -115
• PHO: The Suns are 17-15-1 against the spread in road games
• DAL: The Mavericks are 11-19-3 against the spread in home games
• Suns vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix is dangerous and efficient on offense. The Suns are shooting 37.9% from 3-point range this season, a top-five mark in the NBA, and Phoenix shares the ball at an elite level. The Suns rank in the top three of the league in assists per game (27.1) and assist percentage (65.1% of field goals), and Phoenix creates second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass by securing 31.1% of missed shots. Dallas is No. 24 in the NBA in overall defensive efficiency, and the Mavericks yield well over 25 free throw attempts per game to opponents. 

On defense, Phoenix is rock-solid, giving up fewer than 1.12 points per possession this season. The Suns land in the top five of the league in opponent shooting and assist prevention, with Phoenix also blocking 5.0 shots per game. Dallas is quite strong on offense in the aggregate, but the Mavericks are only No. 28 in the NBA in assists (22.5 per game) and No. 29 in offensive rebounding, grabbing only 23.3% of missed shots.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is led by one of the most potent offensive duos in the NBA in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Doncic is an MVP candidate this season, averaging 33.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game while carrying an immense workload for the Mavericks. Irving joined the Mavericks mid-season via trade, and he is averaging 26.6 points and 6.8 assists per game while making 52% of his shots and 42.6% of his 3-point attempts with Dallas. That pairing leads the Mavericks to a top-six mark in the NBA in offensive efficiency, and Dallas is scoring 121.8 points per 100 possessions in nine games since acquiring Irving. 

Dallas is elite at taking care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 12.6% of offensive possessions, and the Mavericks have top-five marks in 3-pointers (15.1 per game), free throw attempts (26.0 per game), and 2-point shooting accuracy (57.5%). Phoenix struggles to prevent free throws on defense, yielding 25.0 attempts per game to rank in the bottom 10 of the NBA.

How to make Mavericks vs. Suns picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 235 points. The model also says one side hits over 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Suns vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.