Dallas

Severe storms likely in DFW Thursday: Timeline, risks and everything you need to know

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The highest risk of severe storms in North Texas will be in the afternoon and into the evening.

DALLAS — We’ll be tracking these strong to severe storms in North Texas until they leave the area Thusrsday night. 

Stick with WFAA and the WFAA app for continuing coverage throughout Thursday starting with Daybreak and meteorologist Greg Fields at 4:30 a.m. and updates from chief meteorologist Pete Delkus at 5 p.m., 6 p.m., and 10 p.m.

Thursday is expected to be an active weather day across North Texas, with severe thunderstorms and a potential for tornadoes.

The severe potential will increase the further you go east. And that’s indicative by the range of risk categories issued by the National Weather Service for North Texas, with far western areas of the region under a Category 1 “marginal” risk, much of Dallas-Fort Worth under Category 2 and 3, “slight and enhanced” risks, respectively, and eastern parts of the region under Category 4 “moderate” risk.

Here’s the current outlook:

For reference, level 1s and 2s are very common here in North Texas during severe weather season. The level 3 risk is certainly not unheard of, but less common. Level 4 risks are uncommon, and we may only see one or two (if any) in a given year. Level 5s, which are NOT in the forecast, are very rare. We have a lot more information on the risk categories here.

Thursday Forecast

The day will start out cloudy and muggy with some scattered showers or storms possible. The severe threat will be very low Thursday morning, but it is not impossible to see some rain here or there.

Better storm chances will be during the afternoon into evening as a cold front enters North Texas.

Storms will develop along that cold front likely somewhere west of the DFW area. Exactly where is still not completely certain, but likely between Abilene and Fort Worth.

Those storms will then form into a line and sweep across North Texas arriving in DFW anywhere from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. 

Here’s an idea of the timeline: 

The primary concern with that line of storms will be strong wind gusts (60-70mph) and large hail (quarter to golf ball size). With a line of storms, the tornado threat is certainly not zero, but it is lower than with individual supercell type storms. Within that line there could be a few brief spin-up tornadoes.

Storms will move east and out of North Texas through the late night hours, with the area looking storm-free by midnight. 

Then comes the winds 

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts overnight Thursday into Friday morning could be as high as 50 MPH. Winds will get better by late Friday morning and by the afternoon. 

Please stay weather aware Thursday as our entire team tracks the storms from development to departure. 

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